What the IMF, WEF, Stanford HAI, ILO, McKinsey — and a notable dissenting voice — actually say.
AI assists the worker. The human stays in the role but works faster and on higher-value tasks. The ILO estimates this is 6× more likely than full automation.
AI replaces the worker entirely on a task or role. Most likely in highly routine, data-heavy jobs with clear rules and no need for physical presence or social judgment.
Net +78 million jobs by 2030. Generative AI could add $2.6–4.4 trillion in annual economic value. Productivity gains benefit the most exposed workers most.
Only about 20% of US tasks are actually automatable at a profit. AI's true GDP contribution may be as low as 0.5% over the next decade. Transition costs for displaced workers are real and fast.
Both views come from serious economists using the same underlying data. Forming your own view — carefully — matters.
The research above says psychotherapy is a low-exposure job — meaning AI is not about to replace trained therapists. But that finding is being misread by the public.
A growing trend has teenagers using ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Character.ai chatbots as informal therapists. The 2025 research on this practice is not optimistic.
Eight questions drawn from the data above. Immediate feedback per question.